A new academic paper on the issue of "filesharing vs CD" sales has been published.

"The paper, titled "The Impact of Digital File Sharing on the Music Industry: An Empirical Analysis," is the first to use the fine-grained data gathered by the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). The Survey is run by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks nearly all household expenses for selected families in order to calculate numbers like the Consumer Price Index. Michel points out that such a survey has the advantage of eliminating self-serving responses, since participants have no reason to believe the data will be used to measure the effects of file-sharing.

The data used was from 1995 through 2003. Michel wanted to see if there's a link between owning a computer and decreased CD buying during those years. It turns out that there is. During 2002 computer owners' CD sales decreased by $4.79 a year, and by $5.55 in 2003. Those without computers only decreased by $0.80 and $0.22, respectively. On the other hand, in 2001, the year that Napster closed, people with computers increased their CD buying by 19 percent while non-computer owners held steady. Could the decrease in CD buying the following two years be chalked up to increased sales of digital downloads, which started to become popular just at that time? The paper does not address the question."

• Read a brief summary and some criticism at Arstechnica.com
  
• The whole paper can be downloaded, after a free registration, here